Is the "Trump effect" truly having a lasting impact on the markets? With various currencies and commodities showing distinct trends, it's crucial to analyze the forces at play. Let's delve into the details and explore the key levels to watch. Unraveling the Mysteries of the "Trump Effect" in the Market
Analysis of the Dollar's Dominance
For over two months, the dollar has been in a position of supremacy against other G10 currencies. As evidenced by the nearly 7% rise in the dollar index (DXY), it has been a dominant force. The first notable aspect is the presence of horizontal resistance at 107.35, which corresponds to the September 2023 peak. Through Fibonacci analysis, we can further refine the situation and suggest a possible incursion as far as 108.00. However, this doesn't rule out the possibility of further consolidation. The RSI, a widely recognized counter-trend indicator, is currently on overbought levels, indicating the potential for intermediate returns. This shows the complex nature of the dollar's performance and the need for a comprehensive analysis.Another aspect to consider is the impact of the "Trump effect" on the dollar. His policies and actions have likely influenced market sentiment and currency values. For example, his stance on trade and economic policies has created uncertainties that have affected the dollar's trajectory. Understanding these factors is essential for accurately predicting the future direction of the dollar.Performance of Major Currencies
In parallel, the EUR/USD has found support at the 1.0498 target, with a possible maximum at 1.0468. It is now attempting to recover and regain its strength. We will be closely monitoring the initial resistance at 1.0660 to see if it can break through and continue its upward trend. USD/JPY and USD/CHF have also almost reached their recovery targets at 156.84 and 0.8890 respectively. However, it is important to be cautious and not get ahead of the market on these two currencies. There are still uncertainties and factors that could influence their performance.For commodity currencies, USD/CAD has just breached resistance at 1.3959/75, putting an end to the consolidation that has been ongoing since 2022. While the upside target is 1.45, it is difficult to be overly aggressive or confident about this idea given the current resistance against the Aussie and Kiwi. We will be keeping a close eye on AUD/USD at 0.6428 and USD/NZD at 0.5850 for possible intermediate rebounds. These currency pairs are also influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions and commodity prices.In conclusion, the "Trump effect" is having a significant impact on the global markets. By analyzing the performance of different currencies and commodities, we can gain a better understanding of the forces at play and make more informed investment decisions. It is important to stay vigilant and adapt to the changing market conditions as the "Trump effect" continues to unfold.
